S&Pが米主要500社の09年の配当予想をリリース

米格付け会社スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ(S&P)が主要企業500社の配当予想を発表しました。09年の配当総額は2146億ドル(約20兆円)弱と前年より13.3%減少する見通し。減少幅は第二次世界大戦中の1942年依頼(16.9%減)の大幅な落ち込みになる。

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/020609_DividendRateChange.pdf[PDFファイル]

以下S&P リリースより抜粋

S&P 500 Dividends Projected to Decline 13.3% in 2009;Worst Annual Decline Since World War II
New York, February 6, 2009 ? Standard & Poor’s Index Services announced today that it expects 2009 S&P 500 dividends to decline 13.3%, the worst annual decline since 1942 when dividends fell 16.9%. The $24.60 dividend rate translates into an expected $214.66 billion in payments for S&P 500 companies in 2009 versus the $28.39, or $247.9 billion, paid in 2008.
“Given the current economic climate and growing concern over dividend cuts, dividend increases for the S&P 500 companies are expected to slow in 2009,” says Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at Standard & Poor’s. “Unless companies believe that their financial future will improve, their need to conserve cash will outweigh their desire to pay dividends.”
Standard & Poor’s Index Services also announced today that it is decreasing the indicated dividend rate on the S&P 500 from $27.35 to $24.90.
“Due to recent events, including potential congressional action that might limit dividend payments, we are reducing the indicated dividend rate on the S&P 500,” continues Silverblatt. “Standard & Poor’s expects the indicated rate to decline further during the year as the full economic impact is felt by companies, and then move upward as corporate confidence leads to higher future commitments.”
Standard & Poor’s Index Services data shows that sixty-two S&P 500 companies decreased their dividends in 2008 by an aggregate $40.6 billion with forty-eight of the decreases coming from Financials ($37 billion). Over the previous five years (2003-2007), there were only 12 dividend decreases in the Financials sector amounting to $5.1 billion.
So far in 2009, fourteen issues (nine of which are Financials) have decreased their dividend rate by over $13.5 billion. “Actual January dividend payments for the S&P 500 were down 23.9%, which speaks to the Q4 decreases, the $13.5 billion cuts year-to-date speaks to future payments”, warns Silverblatt.
While dividend decreases and warnings are now prevalent in sectors, Financials remain the primary (but not only) concern. At the end of 2007, 96.7% of the Financials paid cash dividends, accounting for 29.1% of the dividend payments. Currently 84.5% pay, accounting for 15.0% of the dividends.
“The bottom line is that investors need to do a lot more homework than in years past as the prospect for future dividends remains extremely cautious,” continues Silverblatt. “On former President Ronald Reagan’s 98th birthday, his words still ring true today, Trust but Verify.”

    S&P 500             CASH       CHANGE     DIVIDENDS
    YEAR              DIVIDENDS               12 MONTHS
    END               PER SHARE                BILLIONS

    2009 ESTIMATE       $24.60    -13.34%      $214.66
    2008                $28.39      2.37%      $247.89
    2007                $27.73     11.45%      $246.58
    2006                $24.88     11.98%      $224.76
    2005                $22.22     14.30%      $201.84
    2004                $19.44     11.82%      $181.02
    2003                $17.39      8.14%      $160.65
    2002                $16.08      2.14%      $147.81
    2001                $15.74     -3.26%      $142.22
    2000                $16.27     -2.52%      $141.08
    1999                $16.69      3.02%      $137.53
    1998                $16.20      4.58%      $128.84
    1997                $15.49      3.96%      $119.52
    1996                $14.90      8.05%      $112.62
    1995                $13.79      1.55%      $101.70

    S&P 500 TOP 25 DIVIDEND PAYERS

    COMPANY                 ANNUAL  SECTOR                     % OF     CUM %
                           DIV RATE                            DIVS   OF DIVS
    Genl Electric           $13,024 Industrials                6.01%    6.01%
    AT&T Inc                 $9,665 Telecommunication Services 4.46%   10.46%
    Exxon Mobil              $8,139 Energy                     3.75%   14.22%
    Wells Fargo              $5,739 Financials                 2.65%   16.87%
    JPMorgan Chase & Co      $5,673 Financials                 2.62%   19.48%
    Chevron Corp             $5,283 Energy                     2.44%   21.92%
    Verizon Communications   $5,226 Telecommunication Services 2.41%   24.33%
    Johnson & Johnson        $5,105 Health Care                2.35%   26.68%
    Procter & Gamble         $4,777 Consumer Staples           2.20%   28.89%
    Philip Morris Intl       $4,370 Consumer Staples           2.02%   30.90%
    Pfizer, Inc              $4,315 Health Care                1.99%   32.89%
    Microsoft Corp           $3,978 Information Technology     1.83%   34.73%
    Merck & Co               $3,214 Health Care                1.48%   36.21%
    Intel Corp               $3,115 Information Technology     1.44%   37.65%
    Coca-Cola Co             $3,024 Consumer Staples           1.39%   39.04%
    U.S. Bancorp             $2,983 Financials                 1.38%   40.42%
    ConocoPhillips           $2,803 Energy                     1.29%   41.71%
    Intl Bus. Machines       $2,687 Information Technology     1.24%   42.95%
    PepsiCo Inc              $2,640 Consumer Staples           1.22%   44.17%
    Altria Group             $2,637 Consumer Staples           1.22%   45.38%
    Bristol-Myers Squibb     $2,455 Health Care                1.13%   46.52%
    Abbott Laboratories      $2,234 Health Care                1.03%   47.55%
    McDonald's Corp          $2,229 Consumer Discretionary     1.03%   48.57%
    Wal-Mart Stores          $2,124 Consumer Staples           0.98%   49.55%
    Lilly (Eli)              $1,961 Health Care                0.90%   50.46%
 STANDARD & POOR'S INDEX SERVICES
    S&P 500 SECTOR DIVIDEND CHANGES

                       TOTAL 2008      2008     2008      2008        2008
                          ACTIONS INCREASES  INITIAL DECREASES SUSPENSIONS
    Consumer
     Discretionary             40        29        2         5           4
    Consumer Staples           35        33        0         1           1
    Energy                     20        20        0         0           0
    Financials                 87        39        0        33          15
    Health Care                13        13        0         0           0
    Industrials                40        40        0         0           0
    Information
     Technology                18        18        0         0           0
    Materials                  20        16        2         1           1
    Telecommunication
     Services                   6         5        0         0           1
    Utilities                  24        23        1         0           0
    Total                     303       236        5        40          22

    Unique issues*            262       219        5        32          22

    *Includes 9 issues that both increased and decreased in 2008

    2008 Dividend
     Rate Change
     $Mil                -$21,506   $18,160     $943  -$31,867     -$8,742
    2008 Financial
     Div Rate Chg
     $Mil                -$34,516    $2,462 -$31,202  -$31,202     -$5,777

    2009 YTD ISSUES            35        21        0        12           2
    2009 YTD Div
     Rate Chg $Mil       -$13,125      $329       $0  -$12,956       -$498

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